Last week two influential organisations made their predictions for the jobs market in 2011.
The REC predicts that public sector redundancies will put real pressure on the market in the first few months of the year but some of these could be countered by private sector recruitment. 23% of private sector businesses expect to increase their permanent headcount in 2011 and a further 32% plan to increase their usage of temporary workers.
40% of employers in the public sector are expecting to see a direct impact on the sector due to the spending cuts. The REC has therefore forecast a rise in unemployment from 2.47 million to 2.65 million by the middle of the year. Although employer confidence in the private sector will rise, this will not be enough to offset the public sector redundancies and unemployment will reach a peak of 8.4% by late 2011, it added.
Kevin Green thinks there is room for cautious optimism saying that the market will continue to recover in the first half of the year before showing a marked upturn in the second half.
The CIPD is also pessimistic about the jobs market this year. Its annual Employment Barometer claims that 120,000 people in the public sector will lose their jobs and 80,000 will become redundant in the private sector. It predicts an unemployment rate of 9% by the end of 2011.
Dr John Philpott expects that the majority of new private sector jobs will be either part-time or temporary positions, whilst pay rises will be modest and not reflect inflation and higher taxation.
There is also a possibility of social discontent and employment disputes arising from the government’s austerity measures and public sector redundancies. He concluded that 2011 could turn into a troubled year for everybody.
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Image: The Way To The Unknown by Ahmed Rabea
