The Office for Budget Responsibility says that tougher austerity measures and higher taxes are needed if Britain is to achieve long term fiscal sustainability.
The UK has an ageing population that is putting pressure on the long term sustainability of public finances, according to a report published earlier this month from the OBR. Over the next fifty years, the number of people in retirement will increase sharply, whilst the number of working age individuals will decline. Currently we have 4 people working to support one pensioner, but that ratio will soon become 2:1.
Analysts predict that the UK population will reach 75 million by 2060, putting additional pressures on the cost of pensions and health care. Without substantial policy changes, the OBR warns that UK net debt levels will rise above 100% by 2060.
In order to bring the debt level down to 40%, the government will need to find an extra £22 billion. The key to sustainable public finances lies with public health but unless NHS productivity improves the UK’s debt levels could rise dramatically.
The OBR report also showed the financial services industry contributed approximately £40 billion of GDP in tax, in 2007. However, it is thought the sector’s contribution will drop to about £34.6 billion if tax rates remain unchanged. The OBR therefore expects the UK economy will rely less on financial services in future years.
The British Chamber of Commerce’s chief economist, David Kern, said the report suggests that we are unlikely to see a return to the level of public sector spending witnessed before the recession. The UK has to adapt its ambitions to more limited resources and acknowledge that the private sector is responsible for creating wealth through greater productivity and increased growth.
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